Oct 26, 2015 at 11:22 PM

中国经济发展 Chinese economic development

说实在话中国现在人才济济，最好的战略家, 经济学家, 都在你们那儿了.  我擅长系统设计分析.虽然世界上有各种系统，但是根本上设计和分析的方法差不多. 我不是经济专家，但是我用最笨的方法来分析一下.

I would say that China now really has talented people. The best strategist and economist are here. I am good at system design analysis. Although there are various systems in the world,  fundamentally the method of design and analysis is similar. I am not an economic expert, but I use the most stupid way to analyze it.

通讯系统有七层.最底层是物理层，用什么线用什么之无线电频，比如物流网里的海路公路空中通道。再上一层是信息怎么打包加密，比如使用集装箱的还是一般的邮局呢，大包还是小包呢。 再上一层是在网络里怎么输送，信息的物流，走那一条道到目的地比较快一点。再上一层就是装的是什么东西啊？是给谁的？派什么用处？发送一方从上层到下层准备好，通过物理层传到另一方，然后收方从下到上一层层打开把信息取出来. 有人的社会按照需要，其经济结构也是由下到上一层一层的，最下的是必需品（衣食住行）最上的是精神和奢侈品，艺术，文化. 国家越富裕，每人所佔有的必需品及必需品的内涵越高级和丰富. 越高层的产品附加价值就越高.

The communication system has seven layers. The bottom layer is the physical layer. What lines are used for radio frequencies, such as the sea， road， airway in the logistics network. The next upper layer is how to pack encryptinformation , such as the use of containers or the general post office, big bags or small packages. The next upper layer is how to transport in the network, the logistics of information, go which route to the destination faster. What is the next level? Who is it for? What is the use? The sending party prepares from the upper layer to the lower layer and transmits it to the other party through the physical layer. Then the receiver opens the information from the bottom to the top to take out the information. In people's society there are needs of economic structure from bottom to top. The bottom is the necessities (clothing, food and shelter)，the top thing is the spirit and luxury goods, art and culture. The richer the country, the more advanced and rich the essentials and necessities of each person. The higher level， the more added value of the products.

三十年前中国还是一个贫穷的国家，中国是怎么样一步一步充实这些层面的呢？中国从最底层做起，用毛泽东的集中优势兵力个个击破，把有限的资金先集中起来，一个一个地扶植低端的制造业，加工业，以发达国家的必需品基础层为市场. 因为他们有购买力，他们要购买比本国生产更便宜的必需品，而且非要不可. 发展中国家不是每个国家都能制造这些必需品，他们也希望以较低的价格购买必需品来满足他们的市场. 所以你就拥有了全球的必需品市场. 渐渐地，把同一条产业链全吸收到中国，因为这样价格才能更便宜. 因为有了制造，创造价值，所以财富像雪球一样越滚越多. 国家有疆界，设置关税，保护本土产业，保证财富由本土创造，不然用钱去买必需品钱从哪里来呀？可是疆界挡不住中国大量的超便宜的产品. 很多年前去耶路撒冷的市场里，虽然很多卖的是宗教产品，居然都是在中国生产的. 南美的市场里卖衣服鞋子生活品，居然也是中国产的.

Thirty years ago, China was still a poor country. How did China enrich these levels step by step? Starting from the bottom, China has used Mao Zedong’s concentrated strengths to break through, that is concentrate the limited funds first, to support the low-end manufacturing industries one by one. The processing industry is based on the necessities of the developed countries who have purchasing power. Those countries have to buy necessities that are cheaper than domestic production, and they must. Not every developing countries can make these necessities themselves, they also want to buy necessities at a lower price to satisfy their market. So China has a global market of essential goods. Gradually, the same industry chain is fully absorbed into China, because the price can be cheaper. Because of manufacturing and creating value, wealth grows more and more like snowballs. Countries have boarders， to set tariffs, protect local industries, and ensure that wealth is created by the locals. Otherwise, how can you have money to buy essential goods? But the borders can't stop Chinese huge amount of ultra-cheap products. Many years ago I went to Jerusalem, although many markets sell religious products, they were all made in China. In the South American market,they  sold clothes and shoes. All made in China.

其实这个世界市场是共通的.发达国家如美国制造高端产品，并巧取豪夺. 可是如果别的国家经济一有问题，夺也得不到什么时，别人没那么多钱买高端产品时，美国的经济模式就出现灾难.同时中国以全世界为市场，当其他国家的经济有问题时，即使是对必需品消费也缩减，中国经济肯定放缓. 怎么样改变经济呢？两个办法. 一个就是投资让别的国家创造更多的财富，你也分利，那他们就有钱来买你的产品. 一个就是对自己市场的产品升级，多制造高端产品. 以前吃饱就好，现在要吃好，不用大路货，要用奢侈品. 还要用高科技，跟上时代.

In fact, this world market is connected. Developed countries such as the United States make high-end products, and they take advantage of it. But if other countries have problems with the economy, they won’t get anything. When others don’t have much money to buy high-end products, the US economy  model will have disaster. At the same time, China takes the world as the market. When the economy of other countries has problems, even if the consumption of essential goods is reduced, the Chinese economy will definitely slow down. How to change the economy? Two ways. One is to let other countries create more wealth, and you also make profits, then they have money to buy your products. Another one is to upgrade their products in the market, and  manufacture morehigh-end products. before it was just fine be full, now you like to eat well, you don't have to use common goods, you can try luxury goods. Also use high technology to keep up with the times.

向外投资比如说一带一路，先要把全球的经济规划有一个大概的概念，某一地区有什么设计目标，你可以把这一地区的各国的经济层次仔细分析一下，从下到上看他们最需要什么，有些基础设施的建造可以是短期回利的，有些是要长期才获利. 你还要分析当地的经济是什么产业创造财富？可以有什么新产业来创造更多的财富？这些产品的市场在哪里？怎么样帮他们去找市场，你是不是愿意把某些必需品的制造也分到那些地区去？你给出一个表格，估算一下产值，预估一下投入，预估一下建设的时间长短，并加以分类给出顺序，看看怎么样适应整个大地区的整体规划. 然后给出一个步骤. 信息网怎么走，物流怎么做，金融怎么做...

For outward investment, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, we must first have a general concept of global economic planning. What are the design goals of a certain region? You can carefully analyze the economic levels of countries in this region and look at them from the bottom up. What is the most needed, some infrastructure construction can be short-term profit, and some will be profitable in the long run. You also need to analyze the local economy is what industry to create wealth? What new industries can there be to create more wealth? Where are the markets for these products? How to help them find the market, are you willing to divide the manufacture of certain necessities into those areas? You give a table, estimate the output value, estimate the input, estimate the length of construction, and classify the order to see how to adapt to the overall planning of the entire region. Then give a road map. How to go online, how to do logistics, how to do finance...

对自己的产品升级，就需要人才的研发. 可以自己培养人才，也可以用全世界的人才. 比如说制造业，德国的机械制造人才众多，美国这边设计产品也是有很多人才的.中国其实需要很多机器人改变人工的模式，对国外的人才来说，是piece of cake. 而这些人因为国内经济不好，找不到工作没用武之地. 新的科技会带来经济结构的大改变，最近突破性的发展不太见到，是不是应该有一个全球的联合起来的研发中心，互通有无，因为新的科技需要很多方面的背景知识才能突破.中国是制造大国，手上有很多的技术，是不是可以组织专门的部门，研究和重新组合这些技术并加以应用，或设计新的系统，生产力的改变就很可观. 可是国内大学我没有看见有系统设计这门课程.中国拥有现在世界上最先进的阵相雷达，同样的技术可以用于捕鱼的声呐. 可是渔民的声呐系统那么落后，海鱼都给日本人韩国人捞走了. 搞不懂. 今天先讲到这儿，为什么你们每次跳舞我都看不见？是不是应该把我也加到group里面？Jackie说她今天跟伊丽莎白王后通话，真羡慕. 真羡慕你们.

For the upgrading of their own products, they need talents in research and development. They can cultivate talents themselves or use talents from all over the world. For example, manufacturing, there are many mechanical manufacturing talents in Germany, and there are many talents in designing products in the United States. It takes a lot of robots to change the artificial mode. For foreign talents, it is a piece of cake. These people are unable to find a job because the domestic economy is not good. The new technology will bring  big changes in the economic structure. The recent breakthrough development is not very obvious. Is there a global joint R&D center that can communicate with each other? Because new technologies require a lot of comprehensive knowledge to break through. China is a big manufacturing country with many technologies at hands. Is it possible to organize specialized departments, research and recombine these technologies and apply them, or design new systems, the productivity changes will be very impressive. But I have not seen the system design course in domestic universities. Now China has the world most advanced array radar, the same technology can be used for fishing sonar. But the fishermen's sonar system is so backward, the fish are all taken away by  Japanese and Koreans. I don’t understand. I’ll stop here today.. Why can’t I see each of you dance? Should you also add me to the group? Jackie said that she is  talking to Queen Elizabeth today. I am really envy you.