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建立政治经济数字模型

已有 78 次阅读2021-1-20 14:49 |个人分类:全球化

*建立数字模型,来解决政治和经济的适应问题  Establish a digital model to address political and economic adaptation issues

 

昨天讲到如何建立数字模型,来解决政治和经济的适应问题.想起去年刚刚和你们结识,当时对政治经济是一窍不通,现在基本上还是那样.  但是在你们的熏陶下,生生地狼吞虎咽了政治和经济的一些背景知识,些许有点开窍了. 觉得当时我很狭隘,只对运作能产生利润的企业集团单位为考虑对象,以之来建立经济运作的基本单位,希望构建一个互相连接的网络系统,来考量和监管模拟现实的经济运作. 这个太失之偏颇!还应该考虑到容纳这些单位的空间范围,也就是他们的地理上分布,以及空间中的自然资源,无论是作为经济运作单位的输入对象,还是stand alone 的存在,比如山脉, 森林, 河流, 草原,等等. 以及土壤的肥沃程度,森林覆盖率,气候条件,等等,作为经济的辅助输入. 当地的人文,比如宗教信仰,教育水平,人口数量,人口组成,工业化程度,等等, 等等, 也应该加以考虑. 因为这些因素会影响到政治力的施加程度,以及用什么样的政治力. 

 

Yesterday, I talked about how to build a digital model to solve the political and economic adaptation problem. I remember that I just met you last year. At that time, I was ignorant of the politics and economy. Now it is basically still the same. But under your influence , lively gorging some background knowledge of politics and economy, I am a little bit open. I feel that at the time I was very narrow minded thinking  only the enterprise group units that can generate profits can be considered as the basic unit to establish economic operations, and it is hoped to construct an interconnected network system to consider and supervise the economic operation of the simulated reality.  This is too biased! It should also take into account the spatial extent of the units that are accommodated, that is, their geographical distribution, and the natural resources in the space, whether as an input to economic operations units or the existence of stand alone, such as mountains, forests, rivers, grasslands. , etc. and the fertility of the soil, forest cover, climatic conditions, etc., as an auxiliary input to the economy model. Local humanities, such as religion, education level, population, population composition, industrialization, etc., etc. , should also be considered. Because these factors will affect the degree of political power and the usage of political power.

 

现在提倡大数据时代. 大数据基本上是以统计和被动收取的方式获得的,一般是在经济领域. 可是社会是一个复杂的结构,象政治人文很多方面,对经济有着不可忽视的影响和作用,所以这个社会也是全方位的. 以前我只单纯地,想把经济系统来监控, 模拟, 优化, 配置. 但不可忽略的,政治系统, 文化系统及其他各个方面,都得要考虑进去. 记得我还曾经说过,对政治的运作, 也可以像经济系统那样, 设置节点进行采样分析归纳,并以此来制定政策,对经济进行导向. 同样也可以这样对文化加以抑扬. 那下一步就要考虑如何将这些因素数据化,将他们的影响力,系统的输入点数据化. 试想如果我们有了一个有效的,相对全方位的管控系统,而人类社会如此复杂,不可能把所有东西都包括进去,那就可以按照需要进行切面采样. 比如说政治方面的,看以前的决策实施的效果如何,如果有误差, 该进行如何的调整,等等. 现在有许多心理和智能方面的控制,我不知道他们的作用对象是什么,控制领域是什么,和控制范围有多大?当为全社会建立全方位模型时,我想会创建出新的智能方案,用来管理优化这些领域,并随时进行调整. 

 

Nowadays, the era of big data is advocated. Big data is basically obtained by means of statistics and passive collection, generally in the economic field. However, society is a complex structure, like many aspects of politics and humanities, which have a negligible influence on the economy. So this society is also all-round. I used to simply think to monitor and simulate, optimize, and configure the economic system. But not to be ignored, the political system, the cultural system, and all other aspects must be considered. Remember I have also said that for the operation of politics, it is also possible to set up nodes for sampling and analysis as in the economic system, and to formulate policies and guide the economy. It is also possible to suppress culture in this way. The next step is to consider how to digitize these factors,   digitize their influence, and the input points of the system. Imagine if we have an effective, relatively omni-directional control system, and human society is so complex that it is impossible to include everything, then it can be sampled as needed. For example, in terms of politics, see how effective the previous decision-making is, if there is an error, how to adjust it, and so on. There are many psychological and intelligent controls. I don't know what their role is, what is the control field, and how much control is there? When building a comprehensive model for the whole society, I would like to create a new smart solution to manage and optimize these areas and adjust them at any time.

 

这也为调整提供了新的可能性,即:除了从当地出发,超越有限的生产条件和资源,有限的人力和素质,而可以在高层次上,从远处输送资金资源和政权力,超越当地的有限条件,建立新的经济单位,使最大可能地发挥当地的优势! 还有一件事我不得不说,当年亚洲金融危机,亚洲四小龙无一幸免,可是中国大陆却抵挡住了. 当时国内的金融系统,我弟弟告诉我,支票转换是用手递的,而且不能折起来,要夹在书里,亲自送过去!这种操作虽然原始,缓慢,看上去好像效率很低,但是这就像大禹治水挖很多壕沟一样,以作为防洪防汛的buffer(缓冲带). 零八年的金融危机,横扫世界大部分国家和地区,那是因为整个世界已经以电子化的方式融为一个整体,休戚相关,因为系统设计的弊端,没有足够的保险闸门. 就像上海A股市场,牵一发而动全身,chain reaction. 就像用铁钩链去钩呼延灼的连环马那样, 呼啦啦一倒就是一大片!也许发达国家的设计者, 就是为了在金融邻域巧取豪夺,而故意这样设计的. 而金融危机,中国却受到很少的影响,因为在很大部分中国金融系统的操作和外边世界不同. 这样有好处也有坏处.


This also provides a new possibility for adjustment, that is: in addition to starting from the local, beyond limited production conditions and resources, limited manpower and quality, it can transfer capital resources and political power from afar at a high level, beyond local limited conditions to  have establishment of new economic units, so that local can get greatest possible advantages! One more thing I have to say is that during the Asian financial crisis, none of the Asian tigers survived, but the Chinese mainland resisted it. At the time, in domestic financial system, my brother told me that the check conversion was hand-delivered and could not fold check up, put it in the book and send it in person! Although this operation is primitive and slow, it seems to be very inefficient, but it is like a flood trench that is used to prevent floods with a buffer. The financial crisis of 2008 has swept most countries in the world. That's because the whole world has been integrated into an electronic way, and every one was  related to it. Because of the drawbacks of system design, there were not enough insurance gates.  Just like the Shanghai A-share market, it takes a whole move, chain reaction. Just like using a chain of iron hooks to hook a chain of horses, down a whole series! Perhaps the designers of developed countries were deliberately designed to win in the financial neighborhood. In the financial crisis, China has received little influence because the operation of a large part of China's financial system is different from the outside world. The benefits also have disadvantages.

 

这次中泰空军演习,泰国军人说中国人在打击目标时很多还要用手算,会延迟,丧失很多快速攻击机会!对于战争来说时间是宝贵的!对于社会系统来说,安全稳定是最重要的. 当我们在这些社会模型数字化的时候,一定要记住,不能因为有效和快速,就把系统暴露在危险中!美国的政体,法律系统,应该说自动化, 电子化程度相当高. 系统本身没错,可也许不够详细,但按照的原则是公准的!但是,犯法的常常是懂法的人,为了达到他们所要的结果,他们扭曲事实,故意创造或者抹杀应该输入的条件和内容,继而导致他们所要的结果!那如果把整个社会进行数字化系统化的时候,又怎么才能保证,不让别有用心的人掌握操控权,而致使人类社会走入灾难? 又怎么才能防止, 纠正人类的错误操作导致的谬误呢?有的时候像“手传支票”似的备用系统,虽然看起来低效,但也许是最有效的,或是在紧急状况时的最佳运作方式. 当然这要看这个系统是怎么设立的! 我不知道你们现在这方面的进程如何?我很希望我能够在这方面为你们多做些什么?因为我有很多系统设计的经验. 也许我可以为你们做咨询服务?

 

During the Sino-Thai Air Force exercise, the Thai soldiers said that many Chinese soldiers still have to calculate by hand when they hit the target, which will cause delay and lose many opportunities for quick attack! Time is precious for war! For social systems, security and stability are the most important. When we digitize these social models, we must remember that we must not expose the system to danger in order to be effective and fast! The US polity, the legal system, should be said to be automated, and the degree of electrification is quite high. The system itself is correct, but it may not be detailed enough, but the principle is fair! However, those who break the law are often those who understand the law. In order to achieve the desired result, they distorted the facts, deliberately created or obliterated the conditions and content of input, and then led to their desired results! Then, if the whole society is digitized and systematically, how can we ensure that people with ulterior motives will not be able to control the human society and cause human society  disaster? How can we prevent and correct the fallacy caused by human error?  Sometimes an alternate system, like a “hand-picked check”, while seemingly inefficient, may be the most effective or best-performing way in an emergency. Of course it depends on how the system is set up! I don't know how your progress in this area is now? I very much hope that I can do more for you in this regard? Because I have a lot of experience in system design. Maybe I can consult for you? 

 

 


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