下一场科技革命就在这里

victoria

汪翔


每几十年，就会出现一场大的科技革命，正是这样的革命，带来经济的一轮轮快速成长。第一轮汽车工业革命，带来的那场轰轰烈烈的变化，带给我们的发达的交通网络，带来的一代比一代更为舒适、更为安全、也更为物美价廉的汽车，还有就此带到的水泥等材料科技革命的跟进，和今天非常准确和方便的GPS系统，已经彻底的改变了我们在这个世界的生活方式。

电脑科技和随后的互联网科技的革命，其演进路径和影响，和汽车革命的，非常类似：先是作为硬件的电脑的出现和一步步的被改进；随后是对电脑“局部”的（办公室文档处理什么的）使用，也就是作为基本办公用具的使用；再随后就是“公路”系统的建立和四通八达。



今天，两者开始合二为一了：由电脑软件控制，使用GPS导航系统，走在四通八达的公路上的无人驾驶的汽车，很可能就是下一场科技革命的开端和主角。

初步听起来好像不是很对路：两个成熟的科技合流，怎么会成为一场巨大的新科技革命？但是，今天的这个两合一，看来是有点很不同的滋味了。

如果这场革命真的开始，首先，很可能是在货物流通领域开始“先行”：那些开货车的司机，不仅供不应求，开支不小，而且，开车的人，长久的“呆”坐在那里，也真的很费精力，而这，又是无人驾驶得以发挥长处的最好地方。

接下来，就是···

大家猜猜吧。



这样的变革，会带来很多方面的大跨越：配套的科技进步，现有科技的完善，对路标识别系统的更高要求，对于车在行驶中相互之间“协调”的需求，中途出现紧急状况时处理的手段，遥控系统，相关司法系统的改变，保险对象的修改，等等。

大家合计合计，如果这场革命真的来临，而你又及时的抓住了，那么，你的人生就会又多了一个难得的添加色彩的机会。

环境和时势造英雄，而大变革时代才是英雄辈出的最佳时刻。但是，大变革时代十几年好几十年才出现一次，人生能够经历的机会实在是很少，错过一次，再遇就很难了。

那么，这一次，你能够抓住机会吗？



有人可能觉得：这个话题都谈论了好几年，好几十年了，旧话重提罢了。如果你是站在学术界的角度，可能你是对的。而站在企业和商业的角度，你又迷糊了机会：正是因为有了这十几年的科研积累，才有今天变成现实的可能性！

记得当年在学校的时候，一位朋友曾经告诉我说：老汪，WWW这家伙在未来的某一天会很大，你看看是不是有机会捞一笔。

当时，我的想法和现在很多人对“无人驾驶”这个概念的想法一样：一个遥不可及的概念，还是少费脑筋的好。

说这话的时候，想起来就像是在昨天。而就是在这么一个好像是“一晚上”的功夫，世界发生了巨大的变化。太多的人就此改变了自己也同时改变了世界。

今天的“无人驾驶”，还有很多问题、麻烦、不完善，有些技术现在看来似乎还是不可解决的。

对了，就是因为处于这样的状况，你才有机会。如果一切都已经成熟，都已经完善，那么，你能够“参与”的，也只是掏钱买消费了。那时候，你剩下的就是唠叨和后悔了。



放下你的书呆子气，将眼光放到实用和为了实用而开发技术上来。这样想，你的思维很可能会发生巨大的变化。如果你敢试一试，也想要一位有着不错的商业头脑的助手甚至是合伙人，那么，你就准备好下酒菜和美酒，我立马就到了。只是，我现在开的还是的自己驾驶的汽车罢了。

是到了该下赌注的时候了。

至少，谷歌已经开始在这方面大赌了。

你敢吗？！








Fortune: Driverless-Car Revolution Quickly Gaining More Traction

Tuesday, November 13, 2012 09:12 AM

By: Pete Moses



The driverless car revolution has been gaining traction and is now legal in three states. But there are both benefits and issues for this nascent driving revolution that consumer, lawmakers and companies involved in the industry need to address right now, Fortune reported.

Google’s self-driving car has logged over 300,000 miles with nary an accident, save for a fender bender when a human driver was steering the Toyota Prius in a parking lot. The car’s “brain” includes GPS and radar while the “eyes” consist of a 3-D mapping camera on the roof that tracks traffic signals, road lanes, obstacles and pedestrians in real time.

Another test for these post-space age transports was 2010’s VisLab Intercontinental Autonomous Challenge where four driverless vans made the 8,077-mile drive from Parma, Italy, to the World Expo in Shanghai.

The three states that have approved usage are Florida, Nevada and California, while Washington, D.C., is working on a bill to legalize them. All require an actual driver to be in the driver’s seat in case of an emergency or technological snafu.

Azim Eskandarian, director of George Washington University's Transportation Safety and Security Program, says that "the technology is here, but the cost needs to come down. In 10 or 15 years you'll see a lot more of these cars."

Benefits are many. An MIT Media Labs report stated 40 percent of gas consumed in cities is used to find parking spaces, something this technology might be able to address with software.

Americans spend on average 250 hours a year commuting by car and that time could be used working from computer-driven autos. Crashes should be minimized, perhaps saving many of the 30,000 deaths blamed on car accidents, according to AAA.

Trucks could convoy at 12-inch intervals, speeding at 100 mph in special lanes designed for that purpose. Richard Wallace, of the Center for Automotive Research, claimed self-driving trucks would save 15 percent to 20 percent in fuel efficiency and down time.

"No drivers, no stops for fuel and food, and no one sleeping overnight in the cab with the air conditioning running," he said.

The biggest bugaboo seems to be legal. In the event of an accident, who would the insurance companies and courts place the blame: the car manufacturer, the software designer, or the GPS company.

Last month Nissan unveiled a driverless version of its Leaf that could hit the market by 2015. GM, Ford and BMW are also tinkering with versions.