汪翔: 明年美国最好卖的汽车

Frank

最近，闲暇之余，在为马上就要置换的汽车品牌操心。同时，也就此学习点，开阔眼界，了解一下美国消费者对于汽车的喜好现状。

为了不买日本品牌车，还真的得费点劲。日本人呀，你自己喜好折腾，害得我们也不得不跟着你一起折腾。我们不应该也不可以，为了节省点时间和金钱，就放手让日本人肆意妄为，继续下去了。

下面的文章，对于我们理解美国消费者的汽车消费大势，似乎有不错的帮助。

如果美国车能够提供“物美价廉”的供给，我当然还是希望为美国品牌做点贡献。但是，也不知道，美国佬是不是有足够的进步？还是继续死猪不怕开水烫地在苟延残喘过日子？韩国车由于耗油效率上的夸大其词，欺骗消费者的结果是自己被罚。

已经被中国公司收购的Volvo，是不是值得自己放心开开，都是未获得解答的问题。

而美国车，好像已经拥有和日本车一决雌雄的基础了。

在欧洲的奔驰、BMW等“豪华”车之外，我们是不是可以非常放心地选择开美国品牌的汽车呢？

还是一个真的有点让人费心的事。





Next Year’s Best-Selling Cars

December 4, 2012 by Mike Sauter



For decades, a relatively small number of cars and light trucks have dominated U.S. sales, whether these were built by American, Japanese, or European manufacturers. This trend goes all the way back to the Ford (NYSE: F) Model T.  The dominance of the market by a few vehicles continued this year, and based on 24/7 Wall St. forecasts will continue in 2013.

Twelve million cars and light trucks were sold in the U.S. through the first 10 months of 2012. According to sales data provided by Edmunds.com, approximately 3.7 million of these were from sales of just 16 models. Most models have at least one characteristic in common. They tend to be inexpensive sedans that get high gas mileage. Every vehicle on the list has a base price of under $25,000. Fourteen have base models that have 4-cylinder engines, which tend to get better mileage than engines with 6-cylinder and 8-cylinder power engines.

Japanese manufacturers will continue to have the very best selling cars. Of the seven best selling cars for 2013, six are Japanese. The exception is Ford’s F-150 pickup, which has been a staple model line of the No. 2 U.S. car company since the 1940s. Japanese cars usually do well on consumer quality surveys, and these manufacturers, which include Toyota (NYSE: TM), Honda (NYSE: HMC), and Nissan have been in the high-mileage end of the market since they became popular in the 1980s.

Based on sales data for the first 10 months of 2012 from Edmunds.com, 24/7 Wall St. has forecasted the 16 cars and light trucks that will sell best in 2013. Using the average monthly sales from January through October 2012, we projected full-year sales for these vehicles and calculated the annual percent change. We reviewed all models that would sell at least 200,000 by the end of this year. Using this forecasted annual change, we projected what each model’s sales would be next year. To be conservative, any models which were projected to increase more than average growth rate among the 16 best selling cars between 2011 and 2012 were assigned the average growth rate.

16. Hyundai Elantra
> Forecast 2013 sales: 215,721
> YTD 2012 sales: 167,087
> Base price: $16,815
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Elantra is one of two cars that Hyundai, a relative newcomer to the market, has on the list. Despite entering the U.S. market many years after foreign owned manufacturers like Toyota and Honda, Hyundai has done extremely well with its low-priced cars. The South Korean company now has a 4.9% share of the U.S. market.  Hyundai says the Elantra gets 38 mpg in highway driving which is probably one of its attractions. Although the Elantra was historically just a sedan, the 2013 Elantra also features hatchback and coupe models.

15. Hyundai Sonata
> Forecast 2013 sales: 235,218
> YTD 2012 sales: 192,119
> Base price: $20,995
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Sonata, Hyundai’s slightly more expensive four-door sedan, can cost over $32,000 when all of the possible accessories and packages are added. Hyundai’s marketing claims about the tremendous mileage its cars get was severely damaged recently when it had to change inaccurate mpg claims, according to a government investigation. Both Hyundai and KIA Motors Corp., which has also been implicated in the lawsuit, have agreed to give both current and former gas owners prepaid debit cards containing the estimated amount of additional money spent on gas due to lower gas mileage.

14. Ford Focus
> Forecast 2013 sales: 243,965
> YTD 2012 sales: 205,006
> Base price: $16,200
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

Ford, the only one of the Big Three U.S. car companies that did not go bankrupt during the recession, has a small fleet of high mileage cars. The Focus–and its stablemate the Fiesta get 38 mpg and 39 mpg in highway driving, respectively. The Focus is available in a high performance ST verion, and an electric model, which is priced at $39,200 but gets 99 mpg in highway driving. Ford released its new Focus in 2011, the first redesign in 11 years. It also completely revamped the Detroit plant where the vehicle is made.

13. Chevy Equinox
> Forecast 2013 sales: 247,468
> YTD 2012 sales: 182,249
> Base price: $23,755
> Vehicle type: 4-door SUV, 4 cylinder

GM’s largest division by sales has 17 basic models, which include cars, crossovers, SUVs, and pickups. The Equinox is the least expensive of the crossover/SUVs in the group, with a base price of just $23,755. The vehicle seats five people, and higher-end models have a V6 engine.  Chevy boasts that the Equinox has gotten good marks from Kelley Blue Book, a leading industry research resource. The car has estimated fuel efficiency of 32 mpg in highway driving and 182 horsepower, ranked third and fourth, respectively, out of 18 four-door 2013 SUVs rated byKelley Blue Book.

12. Chevy Cruze
> Forecast 2013 sales: 247,870
> YTD 2012 sales: 199,721
> Base price: $17,130
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Cruze is one of Chevy’s anchors in the high mileage car race and gets 38 mpg in highway driving. According to parent company GM, the Cruze has the “best fuel economy of any gas engine in America.” The Cruze comes in nine versions, the most expensive of which, the LTZ Auto, has a base price of $23,550. Compared to most of the vehicles on this list, the Cruze is expected to grow quite modestly. Chevrolet is projected to sell  239,665 models in all of 2012, which is around 8,000 cars more than were sold in 2011 and  around 8,000 less than projected 2013 sales.

11. Chevy Malibu
> Forecast 2013 sales: 251,403
> YTD 2012 sales: 189,094
> Base price: $22,390
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

Chevy markets the Malibu as its sporty but modestly priced sedan. The GM division says the Malibu is “inspired by the athletic stance of Camaro,” one of the Chevy sports cars. There is also a high-mileage four-door version, the Malibu Eco, which gets 37 mpg in highway driving. The Eco gets some of its power from energy stored in a lithium-ion battery. The redesigned 2013 Malibu, which came out in the Spring of 2012, went on sale in nearly 100 different countries. Although the new car was slightly shorter than previous models, it was wider, helping to improve interior room.

10. Ford Escape
> Forecast 2013 sales: 273,846
> YTD 2012 sales: 219,907
> Base price: $22,470
> Vehicle type: 4-door SUV, 4 cylinder

The Escape is the entry model of Ford’s SUV/crossover line. It weighs 3,500 pounds, carries up to five people and gets 33 mpg in highway driving. At the other end of the Ford  SUV range is the Expedition, which can carry up to eight people and weigh as much as 6,000 pounds, is priced as high as $49,525, and gets an average of 14 mpg in city driving. Probably because of the differences in fuel economy, Ford sold 19,832 Escape models in October versus 2,943 Expeditions. The 2013 Ford Escape, which debuted  in November 2011, is slightly longer and wider than previous versions, and has a stronger engine.

9. Chevy Silverado 1500
> Forecast 2013 sales: 282,627
> YTD 2012 sales: 248,533
> Base price: $22,595
> Vehicle type: 2-door pickup, 6 cylinder

The Silverado is the mid-priced model among Chevy’s pickups, between the $17,474 Colorado and $35,980 Avalanche. Chevy offers other three versions of the Silverado, which are priced well above the 1500 — a hybrid, the 2500 HD, which has a 395-horsepower engine, and the six-wheel 3500 HD. The 1500 comes in both two-wheel-drive and four-wheel-drive models. The 2014 Chevy Silverado will debut on December 13 and will be on featured at the Detroit Auto Show in January, although no major details about the car have been released.

8. Ford Fusion
> Forecast 2013 sales: 290,424
> YTD 2012 sales: 206,855
> Base price: $21,700
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Fusion is Ford’s mid-sized sedan and comes in four models. The base Fusion gets 34 mpg in highway driving. For consumers more interested in an environmentally friendly car, the Fusion Hybrid gets 47 mpg on the highway. The highest-priced Fusion Titanium AWD costs $36,550 fully loaded, nearly twice as much as the base model. With its new 2013 Fusion, Ford became the first car company “to offer a sedan with gasoline, hybrid and plug-in powertrains that the automaker expects to result in ‘a triple crown of best-in-class gas, hybrid [and] plug-in efficiency,” according to Car Connection.

7. Honda CR-V
> Forecast 2013 sales: 327,955
> YTD 2012 sales: 233,586
> Base price: $22,695
> Vehicle type: 4-door crossover, 4 cylinder

The CR-V is Honda’s base crossover. The vehicle’s small 185-horsepower engine gets 31 mpg in highway driving. The CR-V comes in six versions. These include relatively standard options, like all-wheel drive. The high end EX-L has a satellite navigation system and a base price of $30,195. The 2012 model, which went on sale in June 2011, included cutting-edge technological features such as a standard Pandora radio interface and a text messaging feature that reads messages and allows people to choose one of six automated replies.

6. Toyota Corolla
> Forecast 2013 sales: 333,933
> YTD 2012 sales: 237,844
> Base price: $16,230
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Corolla is Toyota’s low-end sedan. Part of its appeal is its 34 mpg in highway driving. Toyota markets the Corolla against the Honda Civic Sedan and Hyundai Elantra. Among its advantages over its competition, according to Honda, are standard climate control and a CD player. Sales of the Corolla in the first 10 months of the year have already surpassed 2011’s total of 226,342. The Corolla’s most recent redesign was all the way back in 2007. Nevertheless, it was the best-selling compact car in 2011. Insiders have told Autoguide that the 2014 Toyota Corolla will be a “dramatic change.”

5. Honda Civic
> Forecast 2013 sales: 357,621
> YTD 2012 sales: 254,716
> Base price: $15,755
> Vehicle type: 2-door coupe, 4 cylinder

The Civic is one of Honda’s lowest-priced models and comes in seven versions. The first, and least expensive, is a coupe. For slightly more money, $18,165, the Civic is available in a sedan version. As befitting the low-end model of any large manufacturer’s line, Honda offers a hybrid version, which gets 44 mpg in highway driving, as well as a natural gas version. Fully loaded with features, the natural gas version has a sticker price over $31,000. Sales of the Honda Civic have already grown from 221,235 inr 2011 to 254,716 in just the first 10 months of 2012. The restyled Civic is expected to come out in 2013.

4. Nissan Altima
> Forecast 2013 sales: 358,187
> YTD 2012 sales: 258,663
> Base price: $21,700
> Vehicle type: 4-door, 4 cylinder

The 2013 Nissan Altima went on sale in June. It has different proportions and is more loaded with technology, although the changes aren’t massive. “It looks different, at least a bit sexier than the existing model, but its mission remains the same: attract as many mainstream car buyers as possible,” writes Greg Migliore of Autoweek. The fuel economy for the four-cylinder Altima is approximately 27 mpg in the city and 38 mpg on the highway This goes down to 22 mpg and 301 mpg, respectively, for V6 models.

3. Honda Accord
> Forecast 2013 sales: 387,779
> YTD 2012 sales: 276,196
> Base price: $21,680
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Accord comes in both a four-door base sedan and two-door coupe. The base engine for both is a 2.4 liter, four-cylinder engine. The sedan has an optional 3.5 liter V6. Honda’s full-size sedan competes against Toyota Camry and Chevrolet Malibu, both of which are on this list. Among the changes in the new Honda Accord, which went on sale in September, are shorter length, a continuously variable transmission, and a new engine family. Honda calls it “the most sculpted and dynamic Accord ever.”

2. Ford F-150
> Forecast 2013 sales: 455,305
> YTD 2012 sales: 351,177
> Base price: $23,670
> Vehicle type: 2-door pickup, 6 cylinder

The F-150 is the base model of Ford’s large line of pickups. The first generation of the truck was introduced in 1948. The basic F-150 XL gets 23 mpg in highway driving. Of course, as engines get bigger, gas mileage drops. The FX2 model has a 5-liter V8, which gets only 21 mpg in highway driving. The SVT Raptor sports model has a 6.2-liter V8, which only gets 16 mpg in highway driving. The Limited model costs over $55,000 when fully loaded with all of its options. The restyled Ford F-150 costs $170 more than the previous year’s model.

1. Toyota Camry
> Forecast 2013 sales: 483,977
> YTD 2012 sales: 344,713
> Base price: $22,055
> Vehicle type: 4-door sedan, 4 cylinder

The Camry sits in the middle of the Toyota sedan model line — above the Corolla and below the Avalon in price. As is true of all such high-selling models which sell in the hundreds of thousands of vehicles each year, the Camry comes in a number of versions. These include two hybrids, and what Toyota labels the XLE model, which comes with a 3.6-liter V6 that generates 268 horsepower. In August 2011, Toyota released its first redesign of the Camry in five years. However, many in the trade press felt that the company was merely playing it safe, given that the dimensions were not changed.

By Douglas A. McIntyre and Samuel Weigley